Forum Grexit

The Greek government debt crisis alias the Greek depression was an aftermath of the 2007-2008 global financial crises. After Greek’s years of struggle to stay in the Euro, it got shaken by a severe shortage of funds in late 2009 as a result of structural weaknesses in its economy, the great recession, and revelations that the government had inaccurately counted previous data on government deficits and public debt levels. Some Greek commercial banks were forced to lend money to the government. In 2010, the Greek government arranged for 110B Euros bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU, which the government would pay in installments. Their credit rate was severely dropping as per this time.

The Greek depression led to confidence crisis which was manifested by rising costs of risk insurance on credit default swaps as compared to other countries in the Eurozone and the widening of bond yield spreads. Greece initiated the largest sovereign debt default in history in 2012. The Greek government accumulated large amounts of public debt that translated to a significant percentage (above 150%) of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The European Financial Stability Facility, IMF, and ECB funded Greece with huge sums of money to bail them from their misery.

Greece became the first country which is developed to fail to settle an IMF loan in June 2015. The debt levels had reached 323B Euros at this time. Failed deals on Brussel talks during this period created anxiety to the masses who took to the streets to protest against the Eurozone. The Greek government could hardly pay its public servants’ salaries and pensions or any state benefits. Greece’s creditors wanted benefits cut, and VAT raised, but Greece would only agree to increase the retirement age and only hike taxes on corporates and corporations while leaving VAT rates on essential goods intact. Regardless of this, steps were made towards a potential bailout agreement.

Neither the Greek government nor its Eurozone partners want Greece to leave the Eurozone or “Grexit” as it's infamously known. A “Grexit” would imply that the government cannot be able to repay its debts. There is also a high possibility of a surge in inflation. It would also have grave consequences on Eurozone as it could spark another recession. Tax receipts would also fall, and the government might be forced to finance spending by printing money while devaluation beacons. There are also chances of an 80% decline in living standards after a few weeks’ time of Grexit. The government might as well be forced to freeze withdrawals and on people taking money out of the country which will be a mess

 Greece's economy might as well benefit from having an exchange rate that is much more competitive, but this won’t solve pending loopholes in the economy. Currency depreciation is also more likely to occur, and this will make imported goods like food and medicine more expensive. Grexit might also cause people temporarily to lose confidence in the Euro and a possible gain in confidence for the U.S dollar. Despite this, a Grexit would not impact the world severely as a whole like the U.S did.

Sources

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31457991

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7ruSJ4svUI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvqdHp1DogY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esBrbxRsV6c